Market Supply Condition Index
Updated as source data lands. Free to cite.
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<img src="https://wakesignal.net/api/msc/chart.svg?months=36"
alt="Market Supply Condition Index (MSC), WakeSignal Research"
width="880" style="max-width:100%;height:auto">Options: ?months=12..174 · &theme=dark · &w=1200&h=520 · JSON at /api/msc
Pre-written so it can go straight into copy.
Five components, each z-scored against its own trailing 60-month window and winsorized, combined with fixed weights and smoothed over three months. Because every input is measured against its own trend rather than in levels, the index isolates the freight cycle from the secular cost trend that carries rates higher over time.
Validation across 174 months: correlation with forward contract rates of 0.65 at six months and 0.70 at nine. Every month the index printed above 110, contract rates stood above trend three months later.
Every print is stamped on publication and never rewritten. You can reconstruct the index exactly as it stood on any past date, which most published indices cannot offer.
Institutional access to full history, component z-scores and the escalator table is available under licence.